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Aerial shots of Bristol and countryside
Image credit: Jon Chamberlain, Visit West

Climate change is a global issue that has local impacts. It is affecting the West of England through shifting weather patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency of extreme weather events. This guide includes the region’s first Climate Adaptation Report, details of the specific challenges faced by different communities, the projected future climate scenarios, and the actions that can be taken to build resilience. The report and wider guide serve as valuable resources for understanding the level of preparedness and the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the West of England as well as the steps towards adaptation.

  1. The West of England Climate Adaptation Report
  2. How is climate change impacting the local climate?
  3. How is climate change impacting West of England communities?
  4. West of England climate projections
  5. What action can be taken?

Reactions to the West of England’s Climate Adaptation Report

“The impacts of climate change are being felt at a local level. We recently launched the Local Authority Climate Service to provide local authorities with easy access to tailored information on climate change, to support local climate change adaptation planning. This climate adaptation report from the West of England Mayoral Combined Authority is a great example of a local authority making the most of the climate information available from our Local Authority Climate Service, turning it into actionable steps to adapt to a climate we know will continue to impact us in the UK.”

Met Office climate scientist, Dr Tim Mitchell

“Our local communities are facing many threats as the climate is rapidly changing and becoming more unpredictable. Bristol Advisory Committee on Climate Change appreciated the opportunity to input to this report, as it can help local people, businesses, Local Councils and the National Government learn from lived experience of adaptation action and improve resilience going forward.”

Prof Jo House and Prof Enda Hayes, co-chairs, Bristol Advisory Committee on Climate Change

How is climate change impacting the local climate?

The West of England is already experiencing the impact of climate change.

Many residents now have first-hand experience of how the weather and seasons are changing. The changing climate is causing shifting patterns in rainfall and temperature. This is bringing hotter, drier summers and milder, wetter winters. Extreme weather events are also increasing causing flooding, heatwaves, drought, and storms. Sea levels are also rising as the planet warms, causing the expansion of the oceans and the melting of ice sheets.

  • All areas of the UK will be warmer by the end of the century.
  • Increased chance of warmer, wetter winters
  • Increased chance of hotter, drier summers
  • Increases in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events
  • Hotter summers will become more common
  • Increases in the frequency of hot summer days and heatwaves
  • Drier summers and wetter winters will become more common
  • Increases in the intensity of heavy summer rainfall events
  • More intense short downpours
  • Increases in winter rainfall
  • Increases to extreme coastal water levels (mostly due to sea level rise)
  • Possible changes to storm surges

Decreases in soil moisture during summers

  • Almost no snow on the ground by the end of the century

How is climate change impacting West of England communities?

The impacts of climate change can sometimes be very visible through disruption caused by flooding to railway lines or major roads. Other impacts can be harder to see with heatwaves causing sleepless nights and lower productivity at work.

The West of England is home to many different communities who are all facing the negative impacts that climate change will inevitably bring. There will be common challenges but also differences in how these impacts play out across our region. From inner-city areas, to coastal communities and more rural villages, all of the region faces risks.

Many factors combine and influence how vulnerable local communities are to the impact of extreme weather events. These include where people live, their homes, health, and income alongside access to key services and support networks. Climate change worsens existing inequalities meaning the most deprived communities face the greatest risk from these impacts.

Avon from above
Image credit: ©Barbara Evripidou/FirstAvenuePhotography

  • Increased risk of coastal flooding
  • Increased risk of river and surface water flooding
  • Increased ‘urban heat island’ effects where built-up, urban areas experience higher temperatures than more rural locations
  • Risk of wildfire
  • Disruption to transport networks from flooding
  • Disruption to railways from speed restrictions & lines buckling in hot weather
  • Disruption to deliveries and the supply of goods & services including food
  • Increased use of air conditioning during hot summers as people try to keep cool
  • Risk of sewers being overwhelmed during heavy rainfall causing flash flooding
  • Increased risk to health for vulnerable people from extreme heat especially older people, young children and babies and those with existing health conditions
  • Increased threat to mental health due to increasing climate change impacts
  • Disruption to the supply of critical services including health & social care
  • Risk of water scarcity and threats to water supplies during droughts
  • Increased risk of food production being affected by extreme weather
  • Threats to wildlife and habitats from climate change interacting with other environmental stresses such as urbanisation and changing use of land in rural areas

Climate projections

Globally communities are already seeing the major disruption, economic impact, and loss of life caused by over 1°C of global warming since pre-industrial times (around 250 years ago).

International efforts to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions today and over the coming years will determine how much further the climate changes. Without decisive action global warming levels could go beyond 2°C and reach up to 3 or 4°C by the end of the century. The worse climate change becomes the more significant the impact on human and natural systems and the harder it will be to mitigate impacts and adapt to these changes.

Climate stripe which shows how annual average temperatures have been rising steadily over the last 150 years. There are blue stripes showing a cooler than average years and red stripes showing a warmer than average year. It shows that many of the hottest years have occurred in the past twenty years.
Image credit: Met Office
Met Office climate stripe

View a full resolution version of the climate stripe

The Mayoral Combined Authority has been working with the Met Office to explore what climate change means for the region.

The West of England climate stripe shows how annual average temperatures have been rising steadily over the last 150 years. With each blue stripe showing a cooler than average year and each red stripe showing a warmer than average year (compared to an average year during 1981-2000). It shows that many of the hottest years have occurred in the past twenty years.

View data source

Climate change in the region

Cutting-edge climate science also shows how the region’s climate may change in the future by looking at how temperature and rainfall may change over the summer and winter months.

The table shows the range of climate change the region could experience, depending on how successful international efforts are to stop the growth in greenhouse gas emissions which are driving climate change. They show how global warming has already affected our regional climate (first two columns) and the potential impact of 1.5°C, 2°C or 4°C of global warming this century (last three columns).

The Paris Agreement commits governments around the world to substantially reduce emissions to hold global average temperatures to well below 2°C (when compared to pre-industrial levels) and try to limit increases to 1.5°C. The UK government’s independent advisor the Committee on Climate Change recommendation is to prepare for 2°C and assess risks for 4°C.

Exploring a range of possibilities helps guide action to adapt our homes, infrastructure, and communities to these changing conditions. In some cases, a precautionary approach is taken where it’s best to plan now for a worst-case scenario. Another approach is to increase levels of protection over time, for example upgrading flood defences to cope with changing levels of flood risk.

For further information on climate projections and the technical detail behind this data, visit the Met Office’s Local Authority Climate Service (opens in new tab).

Regional climate change for different global warming levels

Metric0.6°C GWL
Baseline (1981-2000)
1.0°C GWL
Recent (2001-2020)
1.5°C GWL
Paris Agreement
2°C GWL
Guidance: Prepare
4°C GWL
Guidance: Assess risks
Temperature°C°C°C change°C change°C change
Summer Maximum Temperature29.0 (28.8 to 29.3)31.0 (30.1 to 32.3)+3.1 (+0.7 to +3.5)+3.4 (+2.0 to +4.9)+7.0 (+6.1 to +9.5)
Summer Average Temperature16.0 (16.0 to 16.0)17.1 (16.7 to 17.6)+1.3 (+1.0 to +2.6)+2.1 (+1.5 to +2.6)+4.3 (+3.7 to +5.3)
Winter Average Temperature4.7 (4.7 to 4.7)5.4 (5.0 to 5.7)+1.0 (+0.6 to +1.2)+1.3 (+0.7 to +1.6)+2.7 (+1.8 to +3.2)
Winter Minimum Temperature-7.1 (-7.6 to -6.9)-6.1 (-7.2 to -3.3)+1.8 (+0.9 to +3.2)+1.9 (+1.1 to +3.9)+4.1 (+3.2 to +4.9)
Annual Average Temperature10.1 (10.1 to 10.1)10.9 (10.8 to 11.1)+1.1 (+1.0 to +1.3)+1.6 (+1.2 to +1.8)+3.3 (+2.9 to +3.8)
Precipitationmm/daymm/day% change% change% change
Summer Precipitation Rate1.96 (1.96 to 1.97)1.92 (1.61 to 2.07)-6% (-19 to -2)-16% (-25 to -4)-31% (-50 to -26)
Winter Precipitation Rate2.71 (2.70 to 2.72)2.85 (2.72 to 3.27)+6% (-2 to +18)+8% (+3 to +18)+21% (+15 to +32)

Note: This information tells us about typical or average conditions so the region could still experience years that are different from these long-term trends (known as ‘natural variability’).

What action can be taken?

We need to adapt to these climate change impacts, building climate resilience across our places, infrastructure networks, our communities, public services, our economy, and our natural environment.

Climate resilience is another way of talking about how well people, communities, institutions, businesses, and the whole region can survive, recover, adapt, and grow in the face of a worsening climate.

Our natural environment has a key role to play in helping people cope with a changing climate and reduce its impacts. For example, planting more in urban areas can help lower temperatures and provide vital shade during hot weather. Other measures can help reduce the risk of floods by using small parks to temporarily store excess water or restoring rivers so they can carry more water during periods of heavy rainfall. These measures are called ‘nature-based solutions’ and have lots of benefits for wildlife but also wellbeing.

Residents are already taking action to adapt to our changing climate.

From getting prepared for bad weather by using the Met Office’s Weather Ready service and signing-up for weather warnings.  Through to changing how they look after their gardens by collecting rainwater, helping local wildlife during heatwaves, and finding out how to protect their homes if they live in a flood risk area.

man holding flag